No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 2 02:40:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 2 02:40:01 UTC 2026.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Cool, dry, and stable conditions are noted across the country this evening per 00z RAOBs. With a synoptic regime in place that is unfavorable for destabilization, thunderstorm potential appears minimal. One exception to this is along/west of the Cascades in the Pacific Northwest where occasional lightning flashes have been observed in recent hours. Regional 00z soundings did sample weak buoyancy, but this will quickly diminish in the coming hours with the onset of nocturnal cooling. As such, any additional lightning potential is expected to be short-lived and should wane rapidly through the late evening. ..Moore.. 02/02/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 1 04:31:02 UTC 2026.

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 1 04:31:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 312337Z - 010430Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED TYPO SUMMARY...A focused corridor of mid-level ascent and a favorable thermodynamic profile will promote moderate to heavy snowfall potential along the NC/SC border this evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of snowfall is evident on KCAE radar imagery. This feature is tied to a shortwave trough moving through the southern Appalachians. This trough is expected to peak in intensity and become more negatively tilted around midnight to 1 AM EST. This will lead to a more consolidated and deepening coastal low off the coast of the Carolinas. Cooling of the atmospheric profile at mid-levels will foster a deeper layer within the dendritic growth zone and the band of snowfall should become more organized with time. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates (up to around an inch per hour) will be possible near the SC/NC border this evening. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33567886 33807934 34508005 34638008 34898014 35098003 35297979 35297929 34647784 34327747 33697803 33567886 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave; however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave; however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 02/01/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing off the Southeast Coast as a cyclone intensifies with the approach of an upper wave; however, this activity will remain well off the coast and will not impact land. Isolated lightning flashes will also be possible off the WA coast through early morning, but lightning potential over land appears limited based on regional 00z RAOBs and forecast soundings. Elsewhere cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Moore.. 02/01/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 31 23:59:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0069 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0069 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 312337Z - 010430Z CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED TYPO SUMMARY...A focused corridor of mid-level ascent and a favorable thermodynamic profile will promote moderate to heavy snowfall potential along the NC/SC border this evening. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band of snowfall is evident on KCAE radar imagery. This feature is tied to a shortwave trough moving through the southern Appalachians. This trough is expected to peak in intensity and become more negatively tilted around midnight to 1 AM EST. This will lead to a more consolidated and deepening coastal low off the coast of the Carolinas. Cooling of the atmospheric profile at mid-levels will foster a deeper layer within the dendritic growth zone and the band of snowfall should become more organized with time. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates (up to around an inch per hour) will be possible near the SC/NC border this evening. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33567886 33807934 34508005 34638008 34898014 35098003 35297979 35297929 34647784 34327747 33697803 33567886 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow with mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the eastern U.S. through late next week. Seasonably cold temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast midweek should keep fire weather concerns minimal through much of next week. Ensemble model guidance continues to suggest a prolonged upper-level ridging pattern across the West, bringing above normal surface temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West and High Plains through next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Florida... Residual northerly flow and dry conditions across the FL Peninsula should extend into Day 3/Monday. However, a more diffuse pressure gradient and resultant lighter north winds is expected as a surface high settles into the Gulf. Although low relative humidity and warmer temperatures are likely across the peninsula Monday, recent rainfall and diminished north winds should limit the fire weather threat across the area. ...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains... Fire weather concerns increase across the central and northern High Plains Day 3/Monday. An eastward propagating mid-level wave entering the Northern Plains and surface trough development in the lee of the central and southern Rockies, should support enhanced downslope drying and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains early next week. Degree of drying and magnitude of RH reductions is still uncertain, limiting confidence in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. However, unseasonably warm temperatures under high amplitude ridging, drying fine fuels, particularly across the northern High Plains where snow-free conditions exist, could increase wildfire risk in the coming days where dry/breezy conditions align. ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern California... Dry conditions and relatively warm temperatures will continue across the Southwest through the middle of next week under a building ridge over the West. Model guidance depicts a potential cut-off low developing near Baja California by Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure sliding southward into the Southern Plains midweek along with the favorably positioned mid-level low could support stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and enhanced offshore flow across southern CA Wednesday and Thursday. However, marginal fuels could limit overall impact from dry/breezy conditions limiting predictability for the midweek time frame. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow with mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the eastern U.S. through late next week. Seasonably cold temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast midweek should keep fire weather concerns minimal through much of next week. Ensemble model guidance continues to suggest a prolonged upper-level ridging pattern across the West, bringing above normal surface temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West and High Plains through next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Florida... Residual northerly flow and dry conditions across the FL Peninsula should extend into Day 3/Monday. However, a more diffuse pressure gradient and resultant lighter north winds is expected as a surface high settles into the Gulf. Although low relative humidity and warmer temperatures are likely across the peninsula Monday, recent rainfall and diminished north winds should limit the fire weather threat across the area. ...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains... Fire weather concerns increase across the central and northern High Plains Day 3/Monday. An eastward propagating mid-level wave entering the Northern Plains and surface trough development in the lee of the central and southern Rockies, should support enhanced downslope drying and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains early next week. Degree of drying and magnitude of RH reductions is still uncertain, limiting confidence in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. However, unseasonably warm temperatures under high amplitude ridging, drying fine fuels, particularly across the northern High Plains where snow-free conditions exist, could increase wildfire risk in the coming days where dry/breezy conditions align. ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern California... Dry conditions and relatively warm temperatures will continue across the Southwest through the middle of next week under a building ridge over the West. Model guidance depicts a potential cut-off low developing near Baja California by Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure sliding southward into the Southern Plains midweek along with the favorably positioned mid-level low could support stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and enhanced offshore flow across southern CA Wednesday and Thursday. However, marginal fuels could limit overall impact from dry/breezy conditions limiting predictability for the midweek time frame. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... Broad northwest flow with mid-level troughing is likely to persist across the eastern U.S. through late next week. Seasonably cold temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation across portions of the Southern Plains and Southeast midweek should keep fire weather concerns minimal through much of next week. Ensemble model guidance continues to suggest a prolonged upper-level ridging pattern across the West, bringing above normal surface temperatures and dry conditions to much of the Intermountain West and High Plains through next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Florida... Residual northerly flow and dry conditions across the FL Peninsula should extend into Day 3/Monday. However, a more diffuse pressure gradient and resultant lighter north winds is expected as a surface high settles into the Gulf. Although low relative humidity and warmer temperatures are likely across the peninsula Monday, recent rainfall and diminished north winds should limit the fire weather threat across the area. ...Days 3-6/Monday-Thursday - Central/Northern High Plains... Fire weather concerns increase across the central and northern High Plains Day 3/Monday. An eastward propagating mid-level wave entering the Northern Plains and surface trough development in the lee of the central and southern Rockies, should support enhanced downslope drying and breezy conditions across the central and northern High Plains early next week. Degree of drying and magnitude of RH reductions is still uncertain, limiting confidence in introducing Critical probabilities at this time. However, unseasonably warm temperatures under high amplitude ridging, drying fine fuels, particularly across the northern High Plains where snow-free conditions exist, could increase wildfire risk in the coming days where dry/breezy conditions align. ...Days 5-6/Wednesday-Thursday - Desert Southwest and Southern California... Dry conditions and relatively warm temperatures will continue across the Southwest through the middle of next week under a building ridge over the West. Model guidance depicts a potential cut-off low developing near Baja California by Wednesday. Broad surface high pressure sliding southward into the Southern Plains midweek along with the favorably positioned mid-level low could support stronger easterly winds across the Desert Southwest and enhanced offshore flow across southern CA Wednesday and Thursday. However, marginal fuels could limit overall impact from dry/breezy conditions limiting predictability for the midweek time frame. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0068 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0068 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent southeastern Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311840Z - 312245Z SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas east-northeastward offshore. Across and inland of the coast, thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to .5 inches along this corridor. These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth (roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening. It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. Read more