SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. ..Gleason.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day, while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in place, and no thunderstorms are expected. Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too shallow for lightning production. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day, while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in place, and no thunderstorms are expected. Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too shallow for lightning production. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day, while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in place, and no thunderstorms are expected. Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too shallow for lightning production. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft is currently in place across much of the central and eastern CONUS, anchored by an expansive upper low centered over central Ontario. Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within the western periphery of this cyclonic flow, with the lead wave entering the TX Panhandle and OK and the second wave moving through western WY. Both of these shortwaves are forecast to move southeastward throughout the day, while another notably strong shortwave drops southward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest early tomorrow. Evolution of these waves will reinforcing the cold, dry, and stable airmass already in place, and no thunderstorms are expected. Upper ridging is expected to build across much of the western CONUS/Intermountain West today. As it does, a pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. Showers with embedded convective elements will accompany each of these waves, but any convection should be too shallow for lightning production. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/29/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026 Read more