SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Florida... A very dry, post-frontal air mass being advected into FL will result in daytime relative humidity 25-35 percent range by Sunday afternoon, with eastern peninsular locations falling to around 20 percent. Northwest winds of 10-15 mph will gradually subside through Sunday afternoon as the deep surface low east of the Carolinas accelerates northeastward. Recent light but widespread rainfall across central/southern FL, marginally dry fuels and cool temperatures primarily in the 40s F should still mitigate significant fire weather concerns for Sunday, precluding the need for broader Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... The potent upper-level trough on the East Coast and associated surface cyclone offshore will lift northeastward with time on Sunday. Surface high pressure and colder air will shift eastward into the more of the eastern U.S. ...Florida... Confidence in reduced RH during the afternoon is higher than on Saturday. RH of 25-35% appears possible along the eastern Peninsula. As with Saturday, temperatures will remain on the cool side. More importantly, winds speeds will be on a downward trend through the period. Given this expected environment, fire weather risk is expected to remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

MD 0067 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PIEDMONT OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA INTO NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Piedmont of Upstate South Carolina into North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311542Z - 311945Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour may become increasingly common across the Carolina Piedmont vicinity through 1-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...To this point, it appears that peak hourly snow rates within an area of snow spreading across and to the lee of the southern Appalachians have remained relatively modest. Precipitable water across the Piedmont is generally around or below .35 inches, with lower values to the west/northwest. Saturating temperature profiles are well below freezing, but temperatures conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth appear initially centered around 700 mb, somewhat low and perhaps not most optimal for larger dendritic ice crystal growth and aggregation. However, latest model output suggests that the deep, digging upstream short wave trough/elongated cyclonic circulation will gradually take on a more neutral orientation while pivoting across and southwest of the southern Appalachians through 18-21Z. Increasingly difluent and divergent mid/upper flow to the northeast of this feature is forecast to contribute to a period of strengthening upward vertical motion across the Carolina Piedmont. This may be enhanced by a band of strengthening frontogenetic forcing in the 800-700 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate cooling profiles will contribute to further lowering, but deepening, of the dendritic growth zone. As this occurs, high resolution model output, among other guidance, suggests increasing potential for hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, which may persist, at least on an off, through much of the afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35548200 36768021 35767929 34778073 34438187 35548200 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday, with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period. Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, but it currently appears that convection will be too weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook were needed. Stronger northwest winds of 15-25 mph associated with a strong cold front will continue to spread into the FL Peninsula today. Relative humidity within the dry, post-frontal air mass will fall to around 30 percent this afternoon, concentrated along the southern AL/GA and FL Panhandle region. High temperatures primarily in the 30s F coupled with marginal fuel dryness will limit a broader fire weather threat across the region where dry and breezy conditions align. However, pockets of drier fuels may support a locally elevated wildfire spread potential this afternoon across the northern Gulf Coast. ..Williams.. 01/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026/ ...Synopsis... A deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will drive 15-20 mph surface winds down the Florida Peninsula today. It is possible that marginal RH reductions may occur along the Florida-Georgia line (30-35% during the afternoon). However, light precipitation was observed on Friday which will dampen fuels. Coupled with temperatures in the 40s F, fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal. Elsewhere within the CONUS, combinations of cool/cold temperatures, light winds, and poor fuel receptiveness will preclude concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more