SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low over the lower OH and TN Valleys late this morning will pivot eastward over GA/the Carolinas into the western Atlantic through tonight. Further deepening of a surface low over the Gulf Stream east of the NC Outer Banks is forecast through the period, but any associated thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. A separate upper trough with related cool mid-level temperatures will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest late tonight into early Sunday morning. However, NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest minimal MUCAPE will be detrimental to lightning-producing convection. ..Gleason/Supinie.. 01/31/2026 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 31 15:01:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through tonight. Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect inland areas. ..Hart.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through tonight. Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect inland areas. ..Hart.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through tonight. Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect inland areas. ..Hart.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today through tonight. Another quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today, with no thunderstorms anticipated. A deepening surface cyclone off the Carolina/Georgia coast will aid in the development of thunderstorms offshore, but that activity is not expected to affect inland areas. ..Hart.. 01/31/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast. However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit severe potential. Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast. However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit severe potential. Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast. However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit severe potential. Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast. However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit severe potential. Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period, while a related surface low and cold front move into the region. In response, weakly modified Gulf moisture will spread northward ahead of the front, potentially yielding weak buoyancy in the Arklatex vicinity by the end of the period. However, the limited moisture/buoyancy and antecedent static stability should limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period, while a related surface low and cold front move into the region. In response, weakly modified Gulf moisture will spread northward ahead of the front, potentially yielding weak buoyancy in the Arklatex vicinity by the end of the period. However, the limited moisture/buoyancy and antecedent static stability should limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period, while a related surface low and cold front move into the region. In response, weakly modified Gulf moisture will spread northward ahead of the front, potentially yielding weak buoyancy in the Arklatex vicinity by the end of the period. However, the limited moisture/buoyancy and antecedent static stability should limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday night. ...Discussion... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains through the period, while a related surface low and cold front move into the region. In response, weakly modified Gulf moisture will spread northward ahead of the front, potentially yielding weak buoyancy in the Arklatex vicinity by the end of the period. However, the limited moisture/buoyancy and antecedent static stability should limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period. While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period. While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period. While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Discussion... Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period. While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2026 Read more